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Author Topic: Flat Bet Strategy for Minimum Risk & Maximum Return  (Read 405 times)
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narxothal
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« on: November 16, 2009, 10:12:04 AM »

So, I'm close to finishing my Andruchi method script mentioned in another post. It works rather well, but it still relies on a progressive betting scheme, which always leaves you risking a lot to earn a little.

The basis of the Andruchi strategy is this: he generated millions of random numbers between 0 and 36 and what emerged was a very clear probability curve. What he found was that in any given set of 37 spins, there would be between 14 and 33 unique numbers that would appear. In 10,000,000 spins, it was never less than 14 or greater than 33. Over 90% of the time, there would be between 21 and 27 unique numbers that would come up for any run of 37. Therefore, he devised a signal to bet on the numbers that hadn't yet come up only when the probability was greater than 90% chance of success and the expected value of following a progression through was greater than $1. You can read more on his site if you'd like the details.

When you only bet on 17 or fewer individual numbers, you only need 1 hit to earn $36, so you can bet flat for 2 rounds and still earn a positive return. After that point you have to do a progression, which gets magnified by the fact that you are putting down lots of individual bets. 17 x $1 is $17...17 x $2 is $34 and so on...

The problem is that this progression will end up in risking over a hundred dollars every so often. In following this system, I haven't yet hit the upper limit, but I know it's possible. I don't like playing that way.

Therefore, I took his idea several steps further and simulated 1,000,000 rounds of 111 (37 x 3) spins each. I got the following graph:

    [0.] => 0: 0.13786
    [1] => 1: 0.31333
    [2] => 2: 0.29181
    [3] => 3: 0.16768
    [4] => 4: 0.06682
    [5] => 5: 0.01928
    [6] => 6: 0.00294
    [7] => 7: 0.00028

The numbers on the left are the counts of unique numbers that did not come up In 111 spins. In other words, 13.789% of the time, every single number from 0 to 36 was landed upon at least once. 31.333% of the time, there was 1 number that didn't come up. And so on. Less than 10% of the time, there will be 4, 5, 6, or 7 numbers left that haven't been landed on. What that means is, if you look back at a group of 100 or so numbers and you see 4, 5, 6, or 7 numbers that haven't come up yet, bet on those numbers. The likelihood that at least one of them will hit in the next several turns is VERY high. And the beautiful part is, since you're only betting on a few numbers and the payout for a hit is $36, you can afford to bet flat for several rounds before your return would be negative. In the example below, I bet $1 on 4 numbers that haven't come up in 103 spins with the knowledge that it's over 90% likely that at least one of those numbers will hit by spin 111.

Units      Total Bet   Profit if Win    Loss if Loss
 $1.00     $4.00     $32.00     $(4.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $28.00     $(8.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $24.00     $(12.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $20.00     $(16.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $16.00     $(20.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $12.00     $(24.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $8.00     $(28.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $4.00     $(32.00)

This means, over 9 times out of 10 that the scenario arises in which there are 4 (or more) numbers un-landed-upon after 100 spins, I will win a minimum of $4.00. The average profit is $18. In the 7% of the time that I lose, I've only lost $32.00. So, the expected profit for 10 sets should be roughly 9X18=$162 and the expected loss is a little less than $32. Leaving me with a net profit of around $130.

The problem with this strategy, of course, is that you have to have to wait for 100 or so spins to see if there are any numbers left to bet on at all. Most of the time, there will only be 0, 1, or 2 numbers left. NOT a safe bet. However, RSS can easily track the history and issue a bet signal whenever conditions are right. And the cool thing is, it can continuously monitor and update the last 100 bets, so favorable conditions will arise fairly frequently.

This will be the basis for my next script. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2010, 10:16:59 PM »

So, I'm close to finishing my Andruchi method script mentioned in another post. It works rather well, but it still relies on a progressive betting scheme, which always leaves you risking a lot to earn a little.

The basis of the Andruchi strategy is this: he generated millions of random numbers between 0 and 36 and what emerged was a very clear probability curve. What he found was that in any given set of 37 spins, there would be between 14 and 33 unique numbers that would appear. In 10,000,000 spins, it was never less than 14 or greater than 33. Over 90% of the time, there would be between 21 and 27 unique numbers that would come up for any run of 37. Therefore, he devised a signal to bet on the numbers that hadn't yet come up only when the probability was greater than 90% chance of success and the expected value of following a progression through was greater than $1. You can read more on his site if you'd like the details.

When you only bet on 17 or fewer individual numbers, you only need 1 hit to earn $36, so you can bet flat for 2 rounds and still earn a positive return. After that point you have to do a progression, which gets magnified by the fact that you are putting down lots of individual bets. 17 x $1 is $17...17 x $2 is $34 and so on...

The problem is that this progression will end up in risking over a hundred dollars every so often. In following this system, I haven't yet hit the upper limit, but I know it's possible. I don't like playing that way.

Therefore, I took his idea several steps further and simulated 1,000,000 rounds of 111 (37 x 3) spins each. I got the following graph:

    [0.] => 0: 0.13786
    [1] => 1: 0.31333
    [2] => 2: 0.29181
    [3] => 3: 0.16768
    [4] => 4: 0.06682
    [5] => 5: 0.01928
    [6] => 6: 0.00294
    [7] => 7: 0.00028

The numbers on the left are the counts of unique numbers that did not come up In 111 spins. In other words, 13.789% of the time, every single number from 0 to 36 was landed upon at least once. 31.333% of the time, there was 1 number that didn't come up. And so on. Less than 10% of the time, there will be 4, 5, 6, or 7 numbers left that haven't been landed on. What that means is, if you look back at a group of 100 or so numbers and you see 4, 5, 6, or 7 numbers that haven't come up yet, bet on those numbers. The likelihood that at least one of them will hit in the next several turns is VERY high. And the beautiful part is, since you're only betting on a few numbers and the payout for a hit is $36, you can afford to bet flat for several rounds before your return would be negative. In the example below, I bet $1 on 4 numbers that haven't come up in 103 spins with the knowledge that it's over 90% likely that at least one of those numbers will hit by spin 111.

Units      Total Bet   Profit if Win    Loss if Loss
 $1.00     $4.00     $32.00     $(4.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $28.00     $(8.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $24.00     $(12.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $20.00     $(16.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $16.00     $(20.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $12.00     $(24.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $8.00     $(28.00)
 $1.00     $4.00     $4.00     $(32.00)

This means, over 9 times out of 10 that the scenario arises in which there are 4 (or more) numbers un-landed-upon after 100 spins, I will win a minimum of $4.00. The average profit is $18. In the 7% of the time that I lose, I've only lost $32.00. So, the expected profit for 10 sets should be roughly 9X18=$162 and the expected loss is a little less than $32. Leaving me with a net profit of around $130.

The problem with this strategy, of course, is that you have to have to wait for 100 or so spins to see if there are any numbers left to bet on at all. Most of the time, there will only be 0, 1, or 2 numbers left. NOT a safe bet. However, RSS can easily track the history and issue a bet signal whenever conditions are right. And the cool thing is, it can continuously monitor and update the last 100 bets, so favorable conditions will arise fairly frequently.

This will be the basis for my next script. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2010, 11:15:58 PM »

I had some time ago an idea related to how to use ANALYZE from AVSB for flat betting strategies.

Maybe later I will release a software for this.
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balaci
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2010, 11:41:48 PM »

hi,
The Andruci's method is very well explained, thank yout, ant it looks interesting, but maybe the free 100 spins are not enough, usually for 1 number the sliping time is more about 350 times.
The Andruci's method look like a simple "sleepers" method but by betting on several numbers no? so if it like that i confirm that 100 spins it's not enought.
If you want to play in real time and keeping an update of numers not come out yet (not erase the memory after the 100 spins) even if one of the 4-5 numbers come out, the others one or the new ones detected can come after 200 spins!
the fact to bet after 100 spins on the numbers that haven't come yet is already included in old RSS scrips (bet on sleepers) and i tried it but it's always the same thing, waiting 100 times before betting on single numbers is too much risky and waiting 360 times is too much cautious, the limit is somewhere between... but where...i don't know .
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strider
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2011, 10:36:05 PM »

Is there a script based on the Andruci method?
I had a long conversation with one of the guys form Andruci support a couple of weeks ago.
He told me that they had only winners. No losers.

So yes I'm interested in the strategy behind Andruci.
Not in the way they give their software away for free: you must open 4 live casino's with each a min of $150.
They will be the referrer and collect money when you lose.
I just don't like the be forced to open accounts under somebody.
But a script based on the andruci method would be nice.

Thanks and take care
Martin
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